A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
