Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
